Project Management in the Oil and Gas Industry
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2.Project management in the oil and gas industry 2016
- Bu sahifa navigatsiya:
- 8.9 Operations risk
- 8.10 Methods of Risk Avoidance
ID
Des crip ti o n O w n er P ro b ab il ity H> = 50% = 3 M 10–50% = 2 L < = 10% =1 Ov er al l co ns eq u ence H = > 500K$ = 3 M = 50–500K$ = 2 L< = 50K$ = 1 M anage ab il ity L = 3 M = 2 H = 1 Sc o re M ax 27 $K if risk co mes tr u e W eeks de la y If risk co mes tr u e Ri sk r ed uct io n ac ti o n Da te Id entif y Da te C los e 1 m an ufac tur er deli ve ry o n tim e SCM 1 3 2 6 T o mo ni to r p er fo rma nce regula rl y 2 p um p no t ma tch wi th sp ecs re q uir emen t ME 1 3 1 3 Re vie w sp ecs wi th t h e ma n ufac tu re / cl ar ifica tio n meetin g wi th th e v en d o r 3 anc ho r b o lt a n d dimen sio n p rob lem s du ri ng co n str uc tio n CE 1 1 1 1 Re vie w dra win gs wi th mac hine 4 p er mi ts t o work f rom o p era tio n CM 1 1 1 1 a meetin g wi th o p era tio n T abl e 8.4 Risk A ss essmen t W eig h t a n d M o ni to rin g S h eet. The History of Graphene 309 5 Sh u t do wn p la n co o rdina tio n C M 33 21 8 M ee ti n g w it h o p era tio n s 6 M issin g b o lts fo r t hief CM 1 1 2 2 se cu ri ty gua rd 7 w ea th er eff ec t du ri ng co n str uc tio n (f og) CM 2 1 2 4 L at e w o rk ho ur s p ro ced ur e/ te leco m. 8 H2S le akag e in pl an t CM 1 1 3 3 P ro ced ur e t o o ver time p o lic y 9 S ec ur it y pass t o en ter p la n t CM/S D 2 2 2 8 R ev ie w s ec ur ity ev er y mo n th wi th t h e co n trac to r 10 P ro cur emen t ap p rov al SCM 1 2 2 4 Sign b y ha nd/ p res en ta- tio n t o ma nagemen t 11 lak e in la b o ur la ng u age CM 1 1 2 2 tra inin g ma tr ix 12 Pum p tr uc k ma no eu vr e HS E 1 2 1 2 Dis cuss mo vin g b y lo ca tio n la yo u t (Co n ti n u ed ) 310 Project Management in the Oil and Gas Industry ID Des crip ti o n O w n er P ro b ab il ity H> = 50% = 3 M 10–50% = 2 L < = 10% =1 Ov er al l co ns eq u ence H = > 500K$ = 3 M = 50–500K$ = 2 L< = 50K$ = 1 M anage ab il ity L = 3 M = 2 H = 1 Sc o re M ax 27 $K if risk co mes tr u e W eeks de la y If risk co mes tr u e Ri sk r ed uct io n ac ti o n Da te Id entif y Da te C los e 13 cra ne mob iliza tio n C O NT 2 3 2 1 2 Chec k wi th t h e cra ne 14 la te o f co ncr et e deli ve ry C O NT 1 2 1 2 C o nfir m wi th t h e co n trac to r W h er e: CM is t h e co n str uc tio n ma nag er SCM su p p ly c h ain ma nag er C O NT is t h e co n trac to r SD s ec u ri ty depa rtmen t HS E he al th, s af ety a n d en vir o nmen t depa rtmen t ME mec h anical en gineer in g depa rtmen t CE Ci vil en gineer in g depa rtmen t T abl e 8.4 (C o n t.) The History of Graphene 311 When looking at the project, everyone may jump to conclusions and define what he or she is afraid might occur during the project. In fact, when we go through the meeting using brainstorming, we may find the output from the following table. 8.9 Operations risk In some old oil and gas companies, due to the mature facilities, their target project may switch to a maintenance project. If we make a comparison between Project and Maintenance Organization and Culture, it is clear that the concept of a project differs fundamentally from that of daily or routine operations and maintenance; it follows that a number of principles and conceptions of project management must also diverge from those followed in the realm of maintenance management. In maintenance management, we tend, generally, to focus on maintain- ing the facilities’ reliability during its lifetime production. Project management may be defined as the planning, organization, direction, and control of all kinds of resources in a specific time duration for achieving a specific objective comprised of various financial and non- financial targets. This should help clarify the difference in outlook of the project man- ager and the maintenance manager. The project manager’s goal is to finish the project on time. Then, he evaluates where he will relocate after finish- ing the project. On the other hand, the maintenance manager never wants daily production to stop and cannot dream of work stopping as distinct from the project manager’s goal of overall task completion. The challenge here is in case of a major rehabilitation project, which is a major maintenance project or “brown field” project. So my question: Do the engineers in engineering on the construction phase in a brown field project have the same competency as the new, “green field” project? Sure this is a big difference and an example of that. A big construc- tion contractor performed very big projects in oil and gas, but when he obtained a maintenance contract, the company failed because the team and his organization is project oriented rather than maintenance oriented. The project scope should be defined clearly and any deviations have a major control from the site. The project management technique is mainly different in new construction from the brown field. As in the brown field, the scope cannot be defined precisely, as when you do the construction scope, unforeseen circumstances may happen as you are working in mature facilities, so change of scope shall happen. Therefore, you should have a 312 Project Management in the Oil and Gas Industry management system that overcomes the changes smooth and fast. On the other hand, the construction team should have an experience in mainte- nance and, practically, they do not have this experience. In most cases, the team can be easy to work with in construction, but to do the visa versa you will fail. Any engineer can work in new construction, but for brown filed or maintenance, it depends on experience. 8.10 Methods of Risk Avoidance There are many ways to reduce the risk in general and these methods depend on eliminating the source of risk or transferring the risk to a third party. If this is done with a firm fixed-price contract, the risk is effectively transferred to the vendor. Generally, in firm fixed-price contracts, the vendor will always raise the price of the service to compensate for the effect of the risk. In addition to that, the warrantees, performance bonds, and guarantees are additional methods for transferring risk. The following techniques can be used to reduce and avoid risks: • Clarifying requirements and objectives • Improving communication • Obtaining information • Acquiring expertise • Changing strategy • Reducing scope • Adopting familiar approach • Using proven methods, tools, and techniques You can transfer risk by transferring liability and ownership through the following: Financial means: • Insurance • Performance bond, warranty Contractual means: • Renegotiate contract conditions • Use subcontractor in parts of the project • Joint ventures/ teaming • Risk-sharing partnership with client The History of Graphene 313 • Target-cost • Note limit to which risk can be transferred • Note that transfer usually involves a price tag Quiz 1. Which of the following describes the BEST use of historical records? • Estimating, life cycle costing, and project planning • Risk management, estimating, and creating lessons learned • Project planning, estimating, and creating a status report • Estimating, risk management, and project planning 2. At which step of risk management does a determination of risk mitigation strategies take place? • Risk identification • Risk quantification • Risk response planning • Risk response control 3. By which of the following techniques can you calculate the risk assessment? • Arrow diagramming method • Network diagramming • Critical path method • Program evaluation and review technique 4. One of the risks your team has discovered is a high probability that the separator you are constructing will not perform safely under operation pressure. In order to handle this risk, you have chosen to test the sepa- rator materials and review design. This is an example of risk: • mitigation • avoidance • transference • acceptance 5. Which part of the risk management process uses data precision as an input? • Risk management • Qualitative risk analysis • Quantitative risk analysis • Risk response planning 315 Bourdaire J.M., R.J. Byramjee & R. Pattinson, 1985, “Reserve assessment under uncertainty - a new approach”; Oil & Gas Journal June 10, 135–140. Cozzolino, J., 1977. A Simplified Utility Framework for the Analysis of Financial Risk, Economics and Evaluation Symposium of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, Dallas, Texas. Paper 6359. J. Davidson Frame, Project management competence, J. Davidson Frame and Jossey-Bass Inc., 1999. John P. Kotter, Leading change, Harvard Business School Press, 1996. Market P., Gustar, M., and Tikalsky, P. J. (1993) “Monte-Carlo Simulation Tool For Better Understanding of LRFD”, J. of Struct., Div., ASCE, Vol. 119, No.5, May, pp. 1586–1599. Michael W. Newell “Preparing for the Project Management Professional (PMP) Certification Exam”, AMACO, 2005. Nikolaos Plevris, Thansis C. Triantafi llou and Daniele Veneziano, (1995) “Reliability of RC Members Strengthened With CFRP Laminates”, J. of Struct Div., ASCE, Vol. 121, No. 7, July, pp. 1037–1044. Project Management Institute Standards Committee. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge. Upper Darby, PA: Project Management Institute, 2000. Project Management Institute Standards Committee. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge. Upper Darby, PA: Project Management Institute, 2004. “The Modified Delphi Technique - A Rotational Modification,” Journal of Vocational and Technical Education, Volume 15 Number 2, Spring 1999, web: VT-edu-JVTE-v15n2: of Delphi Technique developed by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey. Rashedi, M.R. (1984), “Studies on Reliability of Structural Systems,” Ph.D. Thesis, Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio. Ray Tricker (1997). “ISO 9000 for Small Business,” Butterworth-Heinemann, 1997. Rescher(1998): Predicting the Future, State University of New York Press, 1998. References 316 References Richard Freeman, (1993) “Quality Assurance in Training and Education,” Kogan Page, London. Sackman, H. (1974), “Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Process”, R-1283-PR, April 1974. Brown, Thomas, “An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting”, R-944-ARPA, 1972 - the first RAND paper. Stephen Grey “Practical Risk assessment for Project Management”, John Wiley & Sons, 1995.5 Turner, J. Rodney (1993). The handbook of project-based management. McGraw- Hill, London. “The Building Commissioning Guide,” U.S. General Services Administration Public Buildings Service Office of the Chief Architect, April 2005. |
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