Project Management in the Oil and Gas Industry

participants agree on. The other column is the manageability of this item. 
In the case of obtaining approval or permits from the government, it will 
be low manageability as it is out of your control, but if the item of risk is to 
change a drawing or to do an As-Built drawing, it will be easy to manage.
8.4.1.2 Delphi 
Technique
Brainstorming is not very ideal in cases where the attendees are not famil-
iar with risk assessment technique. Also, if there is a high level manager in 
the meeting room, everyone may try to only present one’s self and may not 
freely provide ideas.
In many cases, the meeting output is not always 100 percent efficient. In 
some cases during the project, you may face potential risks that were not 
considered in the meeting. This means all the effort was gone. So this meet-
ing should be held in a professional manner to cover any potential risk or 
this meeting will be a waste of time and effort.
The Delphi method is not traditional in practical life, but it can be used. 
The name “Delphi” is derived from the Oracle of Delphi. The authors of 
the method were not happy with this name because it implies “something 
oracular, something smacking a little of the occult.” The Delphi method 
is based on the assumption that group judgments are more valid than 
individual judgments.

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Project Management in the Oil and Gas Industry
The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the Cold War 
to forecast the impact of technology on warfare (1999). In 1944, General 
Henry H. Arnold ordered the creation of the report for the U.S. Army Air 
Corps on the future technological capabilities that might be used by the 
military.
Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional 
forecasting methods, such as theoretical approach, quantitative models, or 
trend extrapolation, in areas where precise scientific laws have not been 
established yet, quickly became apparent. To combat these shortcomings, 
the Delphi method was developed by Project RAND during the 1950s 
and 1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher 
(1998). It has been used ever since, together with various modifications 
and reformulations such as the Imen-Delphi procedure.
This method is based on the idea that the opinion of a group is better than 
the opinion of one person. As in the war, this method was used by asking 
experts to give their opinion on the probability, frequency, and intensity of 
possible enemy attacks. Other experts could anonymously give feedback. 
This process was repeated several times until a consensus emerged.
In the same way, ask every expert in this type of project separately 
about the expected potential risk of the project. Now days, this method is 
easy due to e-mail, video conferences, and other methods of communica-
tion that appear every day. The process begins with the facilitator using a 
questionnaire to solicit risk ideas about the project. The responses from 
the participants are then categorized and clarified by the facilitator. After 
reviewing the response from the participant and categorizing it, the facili-
tator rounds these risks to the participant and then does it for another 
round until they settle the final list of project risks.
The largest benefit from this method is that the cost is very little or there 
is no cost, but it takes a great effort from the facilitator.
8.4.1.3 Nominal Group Technique
The nominal group technique has the same condition as the brainstorm 
meeting, but in this technique the facilitator requests from everyone in the 
meeting room to write the expected risks during the project on a piece of 
paper. Noting that, the number of participants is usually seven to ten people.
When this is completed, the facilitator takes each piece of paper and lists 
the ideas on a flip chart or blackboard. Here, we avoid the disadvantages of 
the brainstorming technique. Until this point in the process no discussion 
has taken place.

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After all the ideas are listed on the flip board, start the discussion, expla-
nation, and clarification for every item. Then, compile the risks that are 
similar.
This process reduces the effect of a high-ranking person in the group, 
but does not eliminate it like the Delphi technique does. The nominal 
group technique is faster and requires less effort on the part of the facilita-
tor than the Delphi technique.
8.4.1.4 Crawford 
Slip
The Crawford slip process has become popular recently. The procedure of 
the meeting is the same as the brainstorming technique. The advantage 
of this method is that it can be used for more than ten participants. The 
Crawford slip process does not require as strong a facilitator as the other 
techniques and it produces lots of ideas very quickly. This method depends 
on the facilitator asking the question as “what is the expected risk in the 
project?” and every one writing the answer on separate pieces of paper 
and then repeating this question another ten times. If you have ten people, 
you will obtain about 100 answers to the same question. Usually, there will 
be duplicate answers, so filter all the answers and put them in a list to be 
shown to everyone in this meeting.
The Crawford slip meeting can take place in less than half an hour for 
a small group, but the time increases with an increase in the number of