Risk and opportunities


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Risk and opportunities

Introduction

  • Uncertainty distinguishes projects from repetitive operations, key
  • Risk is complex in nature and it may (or may not) be manageable
    • Elements of management may be beyond the single project
      • These often reflect political, social and other organisational issues
    • Evaluation of risk is important, it indicates whether a project is viable
    • There are well-developed procedures for managing risks
      • Management of the process and outcomes
      • Identifying eventualities in advance allows PM to choose actions
  • Opportunity also a part of uncertainty, consider at
    • Project level: new capabilities or unexpected uses of outcome
    • Task level: an early finish allows next project to start early or development of a better method

10.1 The nature of risk and risk management

  • Definitions of risk:
    • The possibility of suffering harm or loss
    • [PMI BoK 2004]
    • Uncertainty inherent in plans and the possibility of something happening (i.e. a contingency) that can affect the prospects of achieving business or project goals
    • [BS 6097 (2000) Part 3: Guide to the Management of Business Related Project Risk]
  • ‘Known knowns’ form the basis of planning
  • ‘Known unknowns’ are uncertainties
  • ‘Unknown unknowns’ are not known in advance

10.1 The nature of risk and risk management (Continued)

    • Risk management incorporates a process for
    • Project planning looks into the future; there is always uncertainty
    • Individuals have different perspectives on risk
      • Individuals are prepared to accept different cost/benefit levels
      • Individuals will choose different levels of risk
      • Treatment of risk is based on partial knowledge and instinct

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