10.2 Qualitative and quantitative approaches (Continued) 10.2 Qualitative and quantitative approaches (Continued) - Figure 10.5 Distribution of estimated times for an activity
10.2 Qualitative and quantitative approaches (Continued) - Table 10.3 Three-point estimates for tasks
10.2 Qualitative and quantitative approaches (Continued) 10.2 Qualitative and quantitative approaches (Continued) - Table 10.5 Probabilities of completing tasks
10.3 Opportunities management - ‘On a recent project, my team spent two days trying to reduce a £50 000 risk. I would much rather they spent that time looking to see how the project could yield an extra £50 000 of business benefit’ [Project Director, Rolls-Royce]
- Many ideas are lost because there is no route to exploit them
- Rare that great innovative products are the result of a development process that started out with that objective in mind
- A route to exploit opportunities is essential
- One framework:
- Negative to positive: a risk that doesn’t materialise is a benefit
- Opportunities of response: a high risk that is mitigated presents an opportunity
- Random good fortune: opportunities presented by a breakthrough
- Qualitative process for managing opportunities similar to that of managing risks
Summary - The issue of risk is central to projects
- How risk is managed will impact on project success
- A basic process provides a structure
- Identification, quantification and mitigation
- Use ‘enterprise risk management’ to establish a ‘risk portfolio’
- Inclusion of high and low risk projects
- Using a risk management framework is strongly recommended
- Practice and reflection is essential
- Do risk processes work?
- Recent research suggests that success is limited
- Risk an opportunity management only part of the process
- Important how organisations respond
- Consideration of process necessary
- As is attention to behaviour
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