Targets, Timetables, and Technology


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Targets, Timetables, and Technology

  • Targets, Timetables, and Technology

  • Politics of a Durable Deal: Justice as Realism

  • Carbon Price Policies: Questions for Tax and Trade

  • Cap and Trade: Devils in the Details

  • Committing a Carbon Trust: The Trillion Dollar Bargain

  • Essential Complementary Policies: California’s Advantage



Sufficiency, Security, and Sustainability

    • Sufficiency, Security, and Sustainability
    • AND Rachel Warren’s impact table – vulnerability to climate change impacts!
  • Sharing Burden and Benefits

    • UNFCCC
    • Contraction & Convergence
    • Sequence (Annex I), differentiation – Berlin Mandate and Byrd Hagel resolution
    • Bali – and G5 statement
    • Greenhouse Development Rights
  • Addressing Political Mobilization Bias

    • All claims for justice are strong; what gives? U.S. free rider; held back by Senate;
    • Physics is stronger than politics: chances are much higher that politics will change – not physics!
    • What are the political strategies for change?
    • Intergenerational representation
    • Interest groups with persuasive power – Open Secrets.org
    • Constituencies with power to resist
  • Addressing inequality in Climate Policy Design

    • EJCC and African Americans
    • CA EJ Declaration
    • CBPP memo
    • Hurricane Katrina
    • Clean Dev’t Mechanism Fund through GEF (offset issues)
  • Recap

    • Disparity in responsibility
    • Disparity in capacity
    • Disparity in burden of mitigation policy – offsets, taxes, etc.
    • Call for solidarity; allies in the negotiations


Sufficiency, Security, Sustainability

  • Sufficiency, Security, Sustainability

  • Concepts of Justice

  • Sharing Burden and Benefits

  • Political Mobilization Bias

  • Addressing Inequity in Climate Policy Design



Sufficiency

  • Sufficiency

  • Security

  • Sustainability































Sufficiency

  • Sufficiency

  • Security

  • Sustainability



Multiple levels of authority with disparate goals

  • Multiple levels of authority with disparate goals

  • Multiple tables for negotiation

  • Multiple vehicles for policy

  • Policy resilience is critical to the long-term humanitarian quest for climate stabilization.

  • Redundancy reduces risk, and coordination accelerates negotiations.

  • The quest is not a single policy that persists for a century…

  • The goal is to maintain a structure for effective policy negotiation that can remain stable even as it transforms over time.



Sufficiency, Security, Sustainability

  • Sufficiency, Security, Sustainability

  • Concepts of Justice

  • Sharing Burden and Benefits

  • Political Mobilization Bias

  • Addressing Inequity in Climate Policy Design



Utilitarianism

  • Utilitarianism

  • Retributive Justice

  • Distributive Justice

  • Rawls’ Theory of Justice



Basic Description: Greatest Good for the Greatest Number

  • Basic Description: Greatest Good for the Greatest Number

  • An action is morally justified on the basis of its (expected) outcome.

  • That which delivers society the most aggregate utility is the most just.

  • Utility is a unitless term for value, or “usefulness.”

  • Cost-benefit analysis is based on the concept of utilitarian justice, using dollars to represent utility.

  • Issues

  • Different people hold different values – and some people may implicitly or explicitly be valued differently in a utilitarian frame.

  • Utilitarianism overlooks the distribution of benefits and burdens.

  • Difficult to negotiate a decision between two distinctly different and mutually dependent parties.



Basic Description: Eye for an Eye

  • Basic Description: Eye for an Eye

  • An action is morally justified if it is a proportionate response to a validated offense in the past.

  • The field of criminology is devoted to defining terms of offense.

  • Criminal sentences (incarceration, fines, death penalty) are meted out in measures considered proportionate to the crime.

  • Issues

  • Different societies have different definitions of offense, and different considerations in determining a proportional response.

  • Responding to injury with injury can feed cycles of retribution that may persist for generations and prevent ultimate resolution.

  • Difficult to prioritize conflicting claims.



Basic Description: Equality

  • Basic Description: Equality

  • The distribution of things – wealth, power, respect – is just if they are allocated “properly” among different people.

  • Fairness is fundamental but still disputed: should something be distributed in equal measure, or on the basis of some meritocratic measure, or as an entitlement according to status?

  • The income tax structure in the U.S. and laws ensuring equal opportunity reflect deeply felt sentiments toward distributive justice.

  • Intergenerational justice is essentially a distributive justice problem over a dimension of time rather than space.

  • Issues

  • Those with authority to distribute resources often attained that position by having more than “their share” already.







Sufficiency, Security, Sustainability

  • Sufficiency, Security, Sustainability

  • Concepts of Justice

  • Sharing Burden and Benefits

  • Political Mobilization Bias

  • Addressing Inequity in Climate Policy Design



Sufficiency, Security, Sustainability

  • Sufficiency, Security, Sustainability

  • Concepts of Justice

  • Sharing Burden and Benefits

  • Political Mobilization Bias

  • Addressing Inequity in Climate Policy Design





“Acknowledging the global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities

  • “Acknowledging the global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities

















Negotiations between nation-states imply governments own the right to the sky (like cell phone frequencies)

  • Negotiations between nation-states imply governments own the right to the sky (like cell phone frequencies)

  • But if the right to a stable climate belongs to all humans, then are all humans entitled to a share of the sky?

  • Distributing the burden for climate change mitigation on a per capita basis has persistent appeal.







“Negotiations for a shared vision on long-term cooperative action at the UNFCCC, including a long-term global goal for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions reductions, must be based on an equitable burden sharing paradigm that ensures equal sustainable development potential for all citizens of the world and that takes into account historical responsibility and respective capabilities as a fair and just approach

  • “Negotiations for a shared vision on long-term cooperative action at the UNFCCC, including a long-term global goal for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions reductions, must be based on an equitable burden sharing paradigm that ensures equal sustainable development potential for all citizens of the world and that takes into account historical responsibility and respective capabilities as a fair and just approach



2 billion people without access to clean cooking fuels

  • 2 billion people without access to clean cooking fuels

  • More than 1.5 billion people without electricity

  • More than 1 billion have poor access to fresh water

  • About 800 million people chronically undernourished

  • 2 million children die per year from diarrhea

  • 30,000 deaths each day from preventable diseases





About 800 million people chronically undernourished

  • About 800 million people chronically undernourished

  • More than 1 billion have poor access to fresh water

  • 2 billion people without access to clean cooking fuels

  • More than 1.5 billion people without electricity

  • If energy development is fundamental to all,

  • what does that mean for a climate regime…?

















National Obligation: share of global mitigation and adaptation costs based on…

  • National Obligation: share of global mitigation and adaptation costs based on…

  • Capacity: resources to pay without sacrificing necessities

    • Income (PPP), excluding income below the $20/day development threshold
  • Responsibility: contribution to the climate problem

    • Cumulative CO2 emissions starting in 1990, excluding “subsistence” emissions (i.e., emissions corresponding to consumption below the development threshold)














U.S. vs China

  • U.S. vs China











A climate regime must:

  • A climate regime must:

    • Ensure the rapid mitigation required by an emergency climate stabilization program
    • Support the deep, extensive adaptation programs that will inevitably be needed
    • While at the same time safeguarding the right to development
  • Greenhouse Development Rights

    • Defines and calculates national obligations with respect to a development threshold
    • Allows those people with incomes and emissions below the threshold to prioritize development
    • Obliges people with incomes and emissions above the threshold (in both the North and South) to pay the global costs of an emergency climate program


This framework can satisfy all four major theories of justice:

  • This framework can satisfy all four major theories of justice:

  • - utilitarianism

  • - retributive justice

  • - distributive justice

  • - Rawls’ theory of justice

  • But to prevail, it must be supported by a strong solidarity movement within the OECD countries that have the highest responsibility and capacity to respond.



The scientific evidence is bracing. Carbon-based growth is no longer an option in the North, nor in the South.

  • The scientific evidence is bracing. Carbon-based growth is no longer an option in the North, nor in the South.

  • A rigorous, binding commitment to North-to-South flows of technology and financial assistance is necessary. Domestic reductions in the North are only half of the North’s obligation.

  • In principle, a commitment from the consuming class in the South is also necessary.

  • In reality, there will need to be a period of trust-building.

  • The alternative to something like this is a weak regime with little chance of preventing catastrophic climate change

  • This is about politics, not only about equity and justice.



Sufficiency, Security, Sustainability

  • Sufficiency, Security, Sustainability

  • Concepts of Justice

  • Sharing Burden and Benefits

  • Political Mobilization Bias

  • Addressing Inequity in Climate Policy Design



Clear utilitarian interest in stabilizing climate change

  • Clear utilitarian interest in stabilizing climate change

  • Clear distributive justice claims against the U.S. and other OECD nations – and the present generations

  • Clear retributive justice claims mounting with impacts

  • What’s going on…?



…including risks that their institutions:

  • …including risks that their institutions:

    • will lose political or economic authority
    • will precipitate conflict in an armored world
    • will be held liable for damages or losses
    • will no longer permit them to remain in power




































Sufficiency, Security, Sustainability

  • Sufficiency, Security, Sustainability

  • Concepts of Justice

  • Sharing Burden and Benefits

  • Political Mobilization Bias

  • Addressing Inequity in Climate Policy Design



Introduce these two dimensions

  • Introduce these two dimensions

























Targets, Timetables, and Technology

  • Targets, Timetables, and Technology

  • Politics of a Durable Deal: Justice as Realism

  • Carbon Price Policies: Questions for Tax and Trade

  • Cap and Trade: Devils in the Details

  • Committing a Carbon Trust: The Trillion Dollar Bargain

  • Essential Complementary Policies: California’s Advantage





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