The market wizards conversations with
Most traders would be happy winning on 50 percent of their trades, and a win ratio of 75
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Most traders would be happy winning on 50 percent of their trades, and a win ratio of 75
percent would be spectacular, yet you are implying that your win ratio is somewhere in the vicinity of 99 percent—that is really hard to believe. You can check with Leigh. I told him about hundreds of my trades during the past few years. [Leigh Stevens is a mutual friend who introduced me to Weinstein.] OK reader, I know what you are saying: '"No losing weeks, but I've had some losing days.' Give me a break." Frankly, I admit Weinstein's statements sound preposterous. I could not verify his claims by examining account statements because his partners are vigorous in maintaining the confidentiality of the partnership's trading activity as it is a private trading firm, not open to the public. In fact, a number of his partners were adamantly opposed to this interview and were nearly successful in dissuading Weinstein from participating. The only account statement Weinstein was willing, or able, to show me was his independent entry in the option trading contest, which did indeed confirm that he multiplied a $ 100,000 account ninefold in three months with 100 percent winning trades. Still unsatisfied, I spoke to Leigh, who has known Weinstein for years and has spent many days watching him trade. I have known Leigh for three years and can confidently describe him as honest, low-keyed, and levelheaded. Leigh confirmed that of about 100 of Weinstein's trades he had personally witnessed and several hundred more Weinstein told him about on the phone (right after he put them on), he could remember only one that was a loser. Even if because of faulty memory (I mean this literally, not as a euphemism for dishonesty), Weinstein's actual per- centage winning rate is somewhat lower than he implies, I still believe his win/loss ratio is incredibly high. How can he do it? Weinstein's own response to this query follows, but to put it in perspective, I thought some further elaboration would be helpful. Weinstein employs his own custom-designed state-of-the-art computer systems to monitor constantly technical indicators designed to measure changes in market momentum. Rather than use the standard values for these indicators, Weinstein uses his own values, which he frequently adjusts for changing market conditions. He combines this intensive real-time analysis with comprehensive chart analysis incorporating a variety of methodologies, including cycles, Fibonacci retracements, and Elliott Wave analysis. Finally, add to this one last essential ingredient: an uncanny sense of market timing. Only when nearly everything lines up right and he feels the timing is virtually perfect does he put on a trade. He passes up many trades that he believes have a high probability of working, but for which he lacks the same degree of near absolute confidence. Because of the combination of a lifetime devotion to studying the markets, intensive real-time analysis, innate market sense and incredibly rigorous trade selection, virtually all of Weinstein's trades are at least marginally profitable at some point within twenty minutes of entry. That is all Weinstein needs to assure a breakeven or better result. It helps to understand that Weinstein usually plays for quick profits and covers his trades within hours or even minutes. Even on position trades, Weinstein will usually take some profits quickly to assure a net profitable outcome. He also trades markets in rotation, quickly shifting his profits from market to market, always seeking the profit potential with the lowest perceived risk. Finally, Weinstein enjoys the support of a floor network that often puts him on the right side of the bid-asked spread. Weinstein's comments may sound like boasting on the written page, but that belies their tone—naiveté would be a much closer description. When Weinstein talks about trades, his comments are peppered with phrases such as, "It's obvious the market is going lower," "This market is so easy." It is clear he has no conception of how difficult trading is for the rest of us. Download 5.03 Kb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
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