Sure. Do you know who bought the most at the highs? The U.S. dealers who desperately needed to cover
because they had sold on the way up.
Are the Japanese smart traders then?
No, they just have a style. They are cannonball traders. They go one way, and they all go together. A friend
of mine at one of the Japanese shops told me about a Japanese trader who bought just about every long bond on the
screen. About fifteen minutes later he called back and asked, "Why is the
basis [the price spread between cash T-
bonds and T-bond futures] going out?" Naively, the Japanese trader had noticed that cash prices had gone way up,
while futures didn't go up very much. My friend told him, "Well, you just bought every bond available. Of course, the
basis is going to go out." They didn't really understand the impact of their trading.
The Japanese did much the same thing in the U.S. equity market in 1987 as they did in bonds in 1986. They
practically took control of it, buying because prices kept going higher.
Г11 never forgive myself for not buying stocks and selling bonds in 1987. That was going to be my number
one trade in 1987.
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