22. Trade what's happening...not what you think is gonna happen. – Doug
Gregory
There is a big difference between predictive technical analysis and reactive
technical analysis. Predicting is trying to forecast
where prices will go in the
future and taking trades based on that belief. Reactive trading is based on taking
a trade after a signal has indicated the beginning of a trend.
It is predictive to believe that the stock market is coming out of a bear market
and buy based on that belief. It is reactive trading to plan to buy into the stock
market when a key index breaks over and closes above the 200
day moving
average, because this is the first indication that the market is coming out of the
bear market.
The biggest leap to profitability comes when we stop taking trades based on
what we think should happen in the market, and instead
learn to trade signals
that react to what is happening. Chart patterns, moving averages, and breakouts
of ranges are designed to capture trends based on signals.
You should trade quantitative signals that give
you good probabilities of
capturing a trend in your timeframe. The market doesn’t care about your
opinion. It will go where it wants to go based on all of the participants’ actions.
Get in the habit of going with the flow, and avoid trying to predict where the
flow is going.