Учредители и издатели журнала Федеральное государственное автономное

Figure 3. Source decomposition of the tax revenue growth rate 
of the Russian tax system stress index (points)
Source: author’s elaboration based on the data of the FTS RF
Note. Since the growth rate of tax revenues reduces risk,
their components are taken with the opposite sign

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Journal of Tax Reform. 2022;8(3):251–269
263
ISSN 2412-8872
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0
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December
May
October
March
August
January
June
November
April
September
February
July
December
May
October
March
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
Special tax regimes
State duty
Natural resources taxes
Property taxes
Excises
Value added tax
Personal income tax
Profit tax
Total tax revenue
2015
Figure 4. Source decomposition of the standard deviation of the tax revenue 
growth rate of the Russian tax system stress index (points)
Source: author’s elaboration based on the data of the FTS RF
–0.25
–0.20
–0.15
–0.10
–0.05
0
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
December
May
October
March
August
January
June
November
April
September
February
July
December
May
October
March
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
Special tax regimes
State duty
Natural resources taxes
Property taxes
Excises
Value added tax
Personal income tax
Profit tax
Total tax revenue
2015
Figure 5. General decomposition of the Russian tax system stress index 
in terms of tax revenues by source (points)
Source: author’s elaboration based on the data of the FTS RF
The figures show that during the pe-
riod of economic recovery and stress re-
duction, the profit tax, VAT and the group 
of natural resources taxes grow at the 
highest rate. For example, from June 2017 
to June 2020, total tax revenues rose by 
34 percent, with VAT revenues up 48 per-
cent, the natural resources tax group up 
42 percent, and profit tax revenues up 
40 percent. In other words, these three out 
of the four most productive tax revenues 
(that is, excluding the personal income 
tax) increased at a faster rate than the total 
tax revenues.

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Journal of Tax Reform. 2022;8(3):251–269
264
ISSN 2412-8872
The same conclusion is confirmed by 
the data on the correlation coefficient for 
the growth rate of total tax revenues and 
specific taxes: the profit tax and the group 
of natural resources taxes show a correla-
tion coefficient with total revenues at the 
level of R = 0.97, VAT – at the level of 0.85. 
However, we should note that the other 
taxes also demonstrate high correlation 
coefficients: special tax regimes – at the 
level of 0.82, personal income tax – 0.77, 
excises – 0.71, property taxes – 0.68. The 
only tax, which growth rate weakly cor-
relates with the growth rate of total tax
revenues – the state duty (R = 0.14). 
It should be noted that during an eco-
nomic downturn, stress also grows mainly 
due to natural resources taxes and profit 
tax. Revenues from them decrease, and 
their volatility increases at a faster rate 
(it is worth reminding that, along with 
special tax regimes, profit tax and natural 
resources taxes during the crisis show the 
maximum growth of the stress index). 
During the coronavirus crisis, the 
dampening role of excises unexpectedly 
manifested itself. Institutional (changes in 
excise rates for various goods) and struc-
tural factors played an important role in 
this. Thus, in July 2020, when the stress 
index went into positive zone and excise 
taxes went into negative zone, 32% of ex-
cise revenues came from tobacco products, 
22% from motor gasoline, 17% from diesel 
fuel, 10% from spirits, 9% from beer, and 
8% from petroleum raw materials. 
A year later, in July 2021, with to-
tal revenues from excise taxes at about 
600bn rubles, almost 500bn rubles of re-
turns were on excise taxes on crude oil, 
i.e. in their absence the revenues from ex-
cise taxes could have been twice as much. 
In January 2022, when the stress index 
returned to the positive zone, the nega-
tive revenues from excise taxes on crude 
oil were already 4.73 times higher than 
the total revenues from excise taxes. This
situation is explained by the fact that 
an additional investment surcharge 
on the excise tax on petroleum crude 
was imposed for 10 years beginning in 
2021, which increased the amount of the
reverse excise tax introduced in 2019
2
.
It should also be noted that the per-
sonal income tax almost always, regard-
less of the study period, plays a weak 
damping role. This is due to the most 
stable growth rates of revenues from this 
tax. Indeed, the standard deviation of the 
growth rate of personal income tax is the 
lowest among all the taxes and tax groups 
under consideration. And it is 3.35 times 
less than the standard deviation of the 
growth rate of total tax revenues. 
2
 
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–0.13
–0.08
–0.03
0.02
0.07
0.12
June 2020 – December 2021
April 2017 – May 2020
Profit tax
Personal income tax
Value added tax
Excises
Property taxes
Natural resources taxes
State duty
Special tax regimes