Based on Figure 3, we can say only about 40% of total household consumption is accounted for by the middle class; more than 50% of consumption falls to the middleclass reserve, low-income populations and the poor. A much larger share of these populations’ expenditures goes to foodstuffs. They spend less on non-food goods and non-consumer services.
From the given data on Figure 4, if economic growth continues at 8% per year, by 2030 the share of households generating total demand will decline slightly – up to 50% of the GDP. With the gradual expansion of the middle class to 60% of the population, its share in households’ actual consumption could reach about 65% by 2030. From 2015 to 2030 this will represent a total of approximately US$585 billion. Thus, per capita income in the middle class will have to increase by more than three times, to about US$5,500 per year. Such shifts in social structures and, consequently, in consumer demand can provide a significant impetus for development in domestic processing industries. From 2015 to 2030 the demand for light industry products (clothes, shoes and various household appliances) has been estimated at a total of about US$61 billion. In turn this will generate a multiplier effect in other sectors. In monetary terms this will represent US$68 billion (UNDP Country Office in Uzbekistan, 2015).
