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Scenario IV “Business as Usual”

Vision. Future development of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes will have the well-defined current trends. According to the modeling results³⁴, two AALS development stages have been identified in 2010-2040.
The first stage will be characterized by stable volume and water-level of these lakes. We think it could be explained by the fact that Kazakhstan will still continue releasing water for the Chardara reservoir to the AALS, thereby keeping the balanced condition of the lakes. For its own needs, Kazakhstan will use only the Chardara water surpluses. It is probable that use of water surpluses will be needed for testing new operated Koksaray dam located in the downstream Syrdarya. With the present course of development, the AALS functioning will keep during 2010-2015.
The second stage will begin after 2015 when the general concerning the lakes development situation will probably completely change. The graph provided in the simulation section³⁵ shows that the gradual decline of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes volume will take place. We suppose that the main reason of a such course is based on the change of emphasis from the Kazakh part. Namely, starting from 2015, there is a high probability that Kazakhstan will start using the Koksaray dam in full operating mode. Consequently, it will use Chardara water needed for maintaining the Aydar-Arnasay lakes for its own needs, i.e. mainly for irrigation of the southern Kazakh areas. In this situation, the AALS volume will steadily decrease amounting to 1,3 to 3,4 km³ in 2039-2040. After 2040, these lakes will disappear, disrupting of all surrounding natural as well as human-induced systems, such as fish farms, wetland ecosystems, and recreational facilities.

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Continuing with cooperation between countries it should be pointed out that consulting only its own interests, Kyrgyzstan will carry on use of the Toktogul in the power-generated regime, releasing a huge amount of water downstream and flooding areas located there.
According to Scenario “Business as Usual”, the future climatic changes will be negligible and will have no impact on the hydrological characteristics of the lakes. Therefore, we can conclude that climate changeforecast will have a minor effect in terms of change of AALS activity.

³⁴ See results in section 6.3.3.4

³⁵ See graph in section 6.3.3.4