Degree of Master of

CONCLUSION

In the course of the present research the established objectives have been accomplished. The detailed review of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system (AALS) has been conducted in the second chapter. Apart from that, modern methods such as application of scenario approach, GIS technologies, remote sensing, and modeling, assisting for environmental research have been also analyzed in the second chapter.
The main methods for data analysis applied by the author in the present research are scenario approach, fostering the finding of alternative AALS water management strategies; application of GIS technologies, contributing to the analysis of the AALS change dynamics in past; and environmental modeling assisting for simulation of the alternative ways of the AALS future development.
Based on the analysis of the archival materials and national scientific books and reports historical stages of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes formation have been identified by the author in the fourth chapter. Besides, a set of maps illustrating the lakes’ evolution has been made by the author and presented in the same chapter. Practical exercise aimed to analyze the change dynamics of the AALS water-surface area in 1969-2009 has been accomplished by the author using GIS technologies.
Examination of the present state of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes, including analysis of the fisheries situated in these lakes, wetlands designated as a Ramsar site and recreational activity has been carried out and described in the fifth chapter.

CEU eTD Collection
The most important objectives established for the main goal achievement have been executed by the author in the sixth chapter. Namely, a set of various water management scenarios based on level of regional cooperation and level of climatic changes have been elaborated. They are “Ready for Challenge”, “Fall Behind”, “Promising Future”, and “Business as Usual”. Then, the Chardara – Aydar-Arnasay lakes model aimed to test these scenarios has been created using the STELLA software. Finally, the model created has been simulated for each water management scenario and results illustrating the change of the AALS volume in 2010-2040 have been obtained.
In the process of the interpreting results and their discussion the following conclusions have been found:

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  Scenario I “Ready for challenge” has two alternative water management sub- scenarios, which are:
  

1. 
   Sub-scenario Ia which is focused on the full cooperation between Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan; it has been concluded that this sub-scenario is quite idealistic for the future development of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes; the main reason of that is impossibility to have such high cooperation between countries as it is assumed in the scenario; besides, consulting interests which is more probable for the AALS future development;
   
2. 
   Sub-scenario Ib which is based on consulting interests; it has been found that this scenario is more probable for the AALS future development comparing with the previous one. Meeting the water needs of the neighbors will be taken into account and the AALS maintenance will be included into the national water policies of Uzbekistan’s neighbors. Moreover, it is highly probably that climate changes will have some impact on the hydrological conditions of the lakes;
   

• 
  Scenario II “Fall behind” is one of most plausible and realistic for the future development because of a high probability of low regional cooperation between countries in future and assumed change the regional climate which will lead to aggravation of the balanced development of the whole lakes system;
  
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  Scenario III “Promising Future” is the most idealized for the AALS future development and could not be brought into real life because of the impossibility to achieve such high regional cooperation between countries.
  
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  Scenario IV “Business as Usual” is the most realistic and feasible for the future development of these lakes; the prime features of this scenario are illustrative for the current state of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes condition; it is possible that these same AALS development trends will be observed over the next thirty years.
  

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