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Scenario III “Promising Future”

Vision. Having analyzed the results³² of the model simulation for the present scenario, we should highlight that the respective scenario draws the AALS future development from the positive perspective. According to this scenario, a level of the regional cooperation between countries is as high as in Scenario I “Ready for Challenge”. Namely, the countries will be concerned in the mutual interests in terms of distribution of the water discharges.

³¹ See map in section 5.2.2

As the model simulation demonstrated³³, around 2,11 km³ water discharges will be needed for the AALS maintaining in future. Taking into account this fact, Kazakhstan will probably give this amount of Chardara water to the Uzbek lakes and will use only the remaining water surpluses for its own needs. Kyrgyzstan will probably renew the barter relationships with Kazakhstan and this will result in the consequences which are representative for sub-scenario Ia.
Generally speaking the future development of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes will corresponds to development in sub-scenario Ia based on the full cooperation between republics. A minor change of the regional climate is the only factor which distinguishes this scenario from the first one. Climate will have a certain influence on the evolvement of the lakes’ hydrological processes. The graph indicating the results of the model simulation for this scenario accurately depicts that volume fluctuation in 2010-2040 will relate to stochastic environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation.
The AALS future existence will be characterized by balanced development, i.e. volume and water-level will remain at the same level in comparison with contemporary values.
Fisheries and recreational activity will probably gradually thrive, making financial contributions to the national economy. Conservation measures, especially, protection of the AALS wetlands and their inhabitants will be effectively accomplished.
Reality. In our view this scenario is the most idealized for the future development of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes.

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The main reason of our viewpoint is that Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan will hardly achieve such high level of cooperation due to the features of the current relationships described in the discussion for sub-scenario Ia. Undoubtedly, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan will primarily meet their own water needs, i.e. a) Kyrgyzstan will use the Toktogul Reservoir in the power-focused regime and release a huge amount of water during the winter time; b) Kazakhstan will accumulate some water surpluses from the Chardara in the Koksaray dam.
Summing it all up, we suppose that this scenario is not very probable and is unrealistic for the Aydar-Arnasay future development. In order to bring into reality a promising future for the Aydar-Arnasay lakes much time will be needed.