Post-colonial trade between Russia and former Soviet republics: back to big brother?
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post sovviet trade
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Table 10
Regressions with trade flows (year dummies but no importer or exporter dummies) Robust standard errors in parentheses ∗∗∗ p < 0.001, ∗∗ p < 0.01, ∗ p < 0.05 Variables (1) ln(Trade Flow) ln (GDP i ) 0.37*** (0.039) ln (GDP j ) 0.78*** (0.029) ln(Distance) − 0.54*** (0.063) Contiguous 1.30*** (0.142) i is Landlocked − 0.20 (0.171) j is Landlocked 0.33 (0.174) i and j Both Landlocked − 0.40 (0.224) ln(1+Tariff) − 3.59*** (0.497) RTA Between i and j 0.39*** (0.046) Colony 0.88*** (0.212) Language 0.18 (0.249) i and j are Same Country 5.14*** (0.169) Country group dummies CIS + i − 1.45*** (0.170) CIS + j − 0.68*** (0.150) Country pair group dummies CIS + ij 2.06*** (0.237) Constant − 0.16 (0.489) Observations 19,522 Number of I_ij 1,352 Economic Change and Restructuring (2021) 54:877–918 913 1 3 Table 11 Regressions with trade flows (with exp-year and imp-year dummies) Robust standard errors in parentheses ∗∗∗ p < 0.001, ∗∗ p < 0.01, ∗ p < 0.05 . All regressions include exporter-year and importer-year dummies. Variable definitions are in Table 9. i denotes exporter and j denotes importer Variables (1) (2) (3) (4) ln(Trade Flow) ln(Trade Flow) ln(Trade Flow) ln(Trade Flow) ln(Distance) − 1.15*** − 1.06*** − 1.05*** − 1.05*** (0.086) (0.078) (0.079) (0.079) Contiguous 0.39** 0.39** 0.40** 0.40** (0.149) (0.147) (0.148) (0.148) i and j Both Landlocked − 0.79*** − 0.40* − 0.36* − 0.36* (0.202) (0.174) (0.174) (0.174) ln(1+Tariff) − 1.89*** − 1.82*** − 1.82*** − 1.82*** (0.506) (0.503) (0.503) (0.503) RTA Between i and j 0.25*** 0.08 0.09 0.09 (0.070) (0.071) (0.071) (0.071) Colony 0.73** 0.17 0.55* 0.53* (0.230) (0.209) (0.274) (0.263) Common Language 0.54* 0.25 0.25 0.24 (0.220) (0.182) (0.181) (0.181) i and j are Same Country 4.12*** 3.91*** 3.90*** 3.92*** (0.309) (0.295) (0.300) (0.298) Country pair group dummies RUS j _CIS + i 1.62** 1.47** (0.494) (0.516) RUS i _CIS + j 1.49*** 1.34** (0.414) (0.444) SIB j _SIB i 2.59*** 2.60*** (0.204) (0.204) CIS + ij 2.52*** (0.197) proRUS_RUS 0.52 (0.368) Constant 9.46*** 6.86*** 6.72*** 6.69*** (0.853) (0.784) (0.799) (0.799) Observations 19,522 19,522 19,522 19,522 Number of I_ij 1352 1352 1352 1352 Economic Change and Restructuring (2021) 54:877–918 914 1 3 Table 12 Baseline regressions with different estimators Generalized least square (GLS), Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML), First Difference Estima- tor (FDE), Heckman Sample Selection (HSS) and Instrumental Variable Least Square (IVLS) method. Robust standard errors in parentheses ∗∗∗ p < 0.001, ∗∗ p < 0.01, ∗ p < 0.05 . All regressions include exporter, importer, exporter–importer and year dummies. Variable definitions are in Table 9. i denotes exporter and j denotes importer Variables (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) ) GLS HSS PPML FDE IVLS ln(GDP i ) 0.29*** 0.80*** 0.42*** 0.31*** (0.025) (0.016) (0.034) (0.009) ln(GDP j ) 0.61*** 0.76*** 0.57*** 0.60*** (0.019) (0.017) (0.042) (0.010) ln(Distance) − 0.43*** − 0.78*** − 0.73*** − 0.43*** (0.078) (0.052) (0.131) (0.049) Contiguous 1.34*** 1.03*** 0.21 1.34*** (0.156) (0.132) (0.192) (0.150) i and j are Both Landlocked − 0.96*** − 0.05 − 1.28*** − 0.95*** (0.131) (0.092) (0.275) (0.072) ln(1+Tariff) − 3.78*** − 2.36*** 1.55 − 3.74*** (0.500) (0.661) (1.356) (0.176) RTA Between i and j 0.43*** 0.54*** 0.57** 0.43*** (0.047) (0.082) (0.203) (0.021) Colony 1.13*** 0.80*** − 0.16 1.13*** (0.233) (0.226) (0.190) (0.208) Common Language 0.71* 0.47* 0.25 0.70*** (0.283) (0.230) (0.234) (0.190) i are Same Country 5.75*** 5.05*** 3.61*** 5.74*** (0.213) (0.195) (0.293) (0.244) Change in ln(GDP i ) 0.09*** (0.021) Change in ln(GDP j ) 0.59*** (0.066) Change in ln(1+Tariff) − 2.20*** (0.372) Change in RTA 0.19*** (0.026) Constant 0.40 − 0.53 4.19*** 0.03*** 0.40 (0.628) (0.414) (1.126) (0.007) (0.394) Observations 19,522 23,273 23,273 18,079 19,522 Number of I_ij 1,352 1,350 1,352 R-squared 1.00 Economic Change and Restructuring (2021) 54:877–918 915 1 3 Fig. 5 Export and import ratios with Russia compared to with Germany, for selected ex-Soviet states Economic Change and Restructuring (2021) 54:877–918 916 1 3 References Acharya R, Crawford J, Maliszewska M, Renard C (2011) Landscape. 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