Research Update: Car Maker UzAuto Motors Affirmed At 'B+/B' On
Download 141.21 Kb. Pdf ko'rish
|
RatingsDirect ResearchUpdateCarMakerUzAutoMotorsAffirmedAtBBOnRecoveryProspectsOutlookRemainsStable 50527172 Jan-27-2022
- Bu sahifa navigatsiya:
- Key metrics UzAuto Motors JSC--Key Metrics* --Fiscal year ended Dec. 31-- Mil. $ 2019a 2020a 2021e
Our Base-Case Scenario
Assumptions - Revenue decline of about 12% in 2021 due to lower volumes on account of the semiconductor chip shortage, followed by a strong rebound of 15%-18% in 2022-2023 as production recovers and the GEM project ramps up, although production is still affected by the semiconductors shortage. - Export sales contribution expanding materially to 14%-15% by 2022-2023 from about 7% in 2020. www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect January 27, 2022 4 Research Update: Car Maker UzAuto Motors Affirmed At 'B+/B' On Recovery Prospects; Outlook Remains Stable - S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margins declining to 6.4%-7.4% in 2022-2023 from 8.5%-9.0% in 2021, reflecting conservative pricing for new models under the GEM project, and limited price offset for rising FX costs in the premium segment. - Working capital inflow of $230 million–$250 million on the back of customer prepayments, followed by a $200 million–$250 million outflow in 2022 as the company delivers these orders. - Capex of about $310 million in 2021, including subsidiaries' investments in one-off projects, which would reduce to $80 million in 2022 as the GEM project nears completion. - No mergers or acquisitions, at least in the medium term. - Dividend payment of 8% of previous year net income in 2021, increasing to up to 30% in 2023-2024. - ECA funding of $160 million in 2022, of which $90 million will be granted to sister company Powertrain, for which UAM will provide cross-default guarantees. - A corporate tax rate of 15%. Key metrics UzAuto Motors JSC--Key Metrics* --Fiscal year ended Dec. 31-- Mil. $ 2019a 2020a 2021e 2022f 2023f Sales ('000 units) 281 295 235 280-290 280-300 EBITDA 365 235 200-220 200-220 200-230 EBITDA margin (%) 13.2 8.9 8.5-9.0 6.4-7.4 6.4-7.4 Working capital changes (58) (365) 230-250 (200)-(250) ~(50) Free operating cash flow (FOCF) 285 (214) 100-120 (100)-(150) 80-110 FFO to debt (%) >100 71 50-55 ~35 35-40 *All figures adjusted by S&P Global Ratings.Our debt adjustments include USD32 mil guarantees, matured in 2021. a--Actual. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. Liquidity We assess UAM's liquidity as adequate. The ratio of liquidity sources to uses will exceed 1.2x in the 12 months from Jan. 1, 2022, supported by improving cash flows and accumulated cash balances from customer prepayments, partly offset by sizeable, contracted capital investments, manageable debt maturities, and reversion of working capital. Our liquidity assessment is somewhat constrained by UAM's limited relationship with international banks and limited track record in the capital markets. Principal liquidity sources: - Non-restrictive cash and cash equivalents of $330 million - Cash FFO of $170 million-$190 million. Principal liquidity uses: Download 141.21 Kb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
Ma'lumotlar bazasi mualliflik huquqi bilan himoyalangan ©fayllar.org 2024
ma'muriyatiga murojaat qiling
ma'muriyatiga murojaat qiling