Would you say the stock market is an exception? That is, does the stock market also behave like
other markets, or does the stock market have its own behavior pattern?
I think it is probably separate.
Why would you say that is true?
Well, my research on individual stocks shows that price fluctuations are closer to random than they are in
commodities. Demonstrably, commodities are trending and, arguably, stocks are random.
Do you have an explanation for that phenomenon?
I believe that there is not enough fundamental information per stock to create sufficient trends to move them
from their random character. There aren't as many commodities as there are stocks.
In other words, there is not the same flow of information as in the commodity markets?
There is not enough information, not enough fundamentals. Just nothing going on.
In the commodity markets, technical information is basically confined to price, volume, and open
interest. Since there is so much more technical information available for stock indexes—advance/decline
ratios, various sentiment indicators, relationships between different groups of stocks, etc.—do ordinary
trend-following systems start off at a big disadvantage because they don't use enough information?
I'm not sure that is the disadvantage. I think the disadvantage is that stock index prices are too close to
random to develop enough clear-cut trends because the inputs—the individual stocks—are mostly random.
What are your thoughts on the recent attacks against program trading?
The people that are complaining ought to be ashamed of themselves.
Do you mean people in the financial community?
Yes. They should have enough sophistication to understand the inanity of what they are complaining about.
Do you see program trading as a convenient scapegoat for a declining market?
Sure. It is a good excuse for doing a lousy job for yourself and your clients. The claim is that program traders
are taking money out of the pockets of the people who are investing in the stock market. Nothing could be further
from the truth. Program trading may move the stock market around a bit, but not in any systematic way. If program
trading caused prices to go too high or too low, that should provide better opportunities for the value investor. Of
course, it's bad for those people who pretend they are value investors, but are really traders.
Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |