Tomorqa xo‘jaliklaridan keladigan daromadlarga ta’sir etuvchi omillar va ularni iqtisodiy baholash sh. A. Muratov

1-jadval
O‘zgaruvchilarning statistik tasnifi

O‘zgaruvchilar	O‘rtacha	Standart og‘ish	Min	Max
Daromad, mln so‘m	9,605	6,489	1,2	32,2
Yoshi, yil	48,335	9,111	31	65
Jinsi	0,917	0,275	0	1
Ma’lumoti	0,929	0,684	0	2
0-3 oila a’zolari	0,452	0,499	0	1
Oila a’zolari, nafar	5,694	1,245	3	9
Ekin maydon, sotix	7,670	4,450	2	23
Organik o‘g‘it, ming so‘m	209,782	154,866	35	850
Mineral o‘g‘it, ming so‘m	112,164	80,132	20	425
Urug‘lik/ko‘chat, ming so‘m	324,623	268,620	45	1500
Ekin maydonni tayorlash, ming so‘m	225,205	171,249	40	900
“Tomorqa xizmati” masofa	2,135	1,273	1	5
Mineral o‘g‘itgacha masofa	0,411	0,493	1	5
Suv ta’minoti	0,411	0,493	0	1

Multikollinearlikni aniqlashda mustaqil o‘zgaruvchilar uchun VIF (Variance inflation factor) test o‘tkazildi. VIF test - ko‘p regressiv o‘zgaruvchilar to‘plamidagi multikollinerlik miqdorining o‘lchovidir. VIF test natijasiga ko‘ra uning o‘rtacha qiymati 2,595ni tashkil etib o‘zgaruvchilar o‘rtasida multikollinearlik yo‘qligini ko‘rsatmoqda.
Bog‘liq o‘zgaruvchi(Y) miqdor ko‘rsatkichdan ifodalanganligi uchun unga mustaqil o‘zgaruvchi (X) qay darajada ta’sirini iqtisodiy baholashda, ya’ni tomorqa xo‘jaligidan olingan daromadga ta’sir etuvchi omillarni tahlil etish uchun Tobit modeldan foydalanildi.
Mazkur metoddan foydalanilgan holda tomorqa xo‘jaligidan olingan daromad va unga ta’sir etuvchi omillarni “STATA-16” dasturida olingan tahlil natijalari asosida iqtisodiy baho berildi.
Olingan tahlil natijalariga ko‘ra(2-jadval), tomorqa xo‘jaliklaridan olingan daromadning oshishida tomorqa yer egalari yoshi, tomorqa ekin maydoni hajmi, organik va mineral o‘g‘itlar sarfi, ururg‘ va ko‘chatlarga qilingan sarflar, ekin maydonini tayorlash bilan bog‘liq xarajatlar sarfi hamda “Tomorqa xizmati” MChJgacha va mineral o‘g‘it shaxobchasigacha bo‘lgan masofa 1 foiz(p<.01)likda statistik muhim ahamiyatga ega.
2-jadval
Tomorqa xo‘jalik faoliyatidan keladigan daromadga ta’sir etuvchi omillarni iqtisodiy baholash

Daromad	Coef.		St.Err.	t-value		p-value	[95% Conf		Interval]	Sig
Yoshi	.063		.018	3.47		.001	.027		.099	***
Jinsi	.452		.225	2.01		.046	.007		.897	**
Ma’lumoti	-.161		.455	-0.35		.724	-1.06		.738
0-3 oila a’zolari	-.597		.269	-2.22		.028	-1.128		-.067	**
Oila a’zolari	.161		.118	1.37		.173	-.071		.394
Ekin maydon	.352		.058	6.13		0	.239		.466	***
Organik o‘g‘it	.008		.002	4.77		0	.004		.011	***
Mineral o‘g‘it	.017		.003	5.47		0	.011		.023	***
Urug‘lik/ko‘chat	.004		.001	4.65		0	.002		.006	***
Ekin maydonni tayorlash	.006		.001	3.91		0	.003		.008	***
“Tomorqa xizmati” masofa	.44		.159	2.77		.006	.126		.753	***
Mineral o‘g‘itgacha masofa	.474		.15	3.16		.002	.177		.77	***
Suv ta’minoti	.671		.303	2.21		.028	.072		1.27	**
Constant	-5.307		.966	-5.50		0	-7.214		-3.4	***
var(e.TEMKD)	2.535		.275	.b		.b	2.046		3.14
Mean dependent var		9.605			SD dependent var			6.489
Pseudo r-squared		0.427			Number of obs			170.000
Chi-square		476.733			Prob > chi2			0.000
Akaike crit. (AIC)		670.554			Bayesian crit. (BIC)			717.591
*** p<.01, ** p<.05, * p<.1

Biroq, tomorqa yer egalari jinsi va oila a’zolari soni statistik muhim ahamiyatga ega emas. Vaholanki, oilada 0-3 yoshgacha bo‘lgan a’zolarning bo‘lishi 5 foiz(p<.05)likda statistik muhim ahamiyatga ega bo‘lib, oilada 0-3 yoshgacha bo‘lgan a’zolarning mavjudligi tomorqa xo‘jaligidan keladigan daromadlarni 59,7 foizga kamaytiradi. Shuningdek, tomorqa yer egasi ma’lumoti va tomorqa yer egalarining ekinlarni sug‘orishda suv ta’minotidan qoniqishi 5 foiz(p<.05)likda statistik muhim ahamiyatga ega.
Mazkur olingan natijalarga ko‘ra, tomorqa yer egalari yoshi 1 yoshga oshishi tomorqa xo‘jaliklaridan keladigan daromadlarni 6,3 foizga oshiradi. Tomorqa yer egalari tomonidan organik va mineral o‘g‘itlar sarfini mos ravishda bir birlikka oshishi tomorqa xo‘jaligidan keladigan daromadlarni 0,8:1,7 foizga oshirishi mumkin. Shuningdek, tomorqa yer egalari tomonidan urug‘lik va ko‘chatlar sarfining bir birlikka oshishi tomorqa xo‘jaligidan keladigan daromadni 0,4 foizga, ekin maydonini tayorlash xarajatlar sarfi esa 0,6 foizga oshishiga ijobiy ta’sir ko‘rsatadi.
Xulosa va takliflar. Tomorqa xo‘jaliklari faoliyatidan keladigan daromadlarni tahlil etishda dehqonchilik madaniyati nisbatan rivojlangan Samarqand viloyati 4 ta tumanida 170 ta tomorqa xo‘jaliklarida o‘tkazilgan anonim so‘rovnoma ma’lumotlaridan foydalanildi. Tomorqa yer egalari tomonidan olinadigan qishloq xo‘jaligi mahsulotlardan keladigan daraomadga ta’sir etuvchi omillarga iqtisodiy baho berishda tobit modelidan foydalanildi.
Samarqand viloyati 4 ta tumanida tomorqa xo‘jaliklari faoliyatidan keladigan daromadlarni oshirish imkoniyatlar mavjud. Kelgusida tomorqa yer egalari tomonidan ularning malaka, savodhonlik darajasini oshirishga e’tibor qaratilishi, tomorqa ekin maydonlari tuproq unumdorligini oshirish, serhosil navlardan foydalanish, mineral va organik o‘g‘itlardan foydalanishi tomorqa xo‘jaliklari faoliyatidan keladigan daromadlarni oshishiga ijobiy ta’sir ko‘rsatishi ilmiy asoslandi. Shuningdek, hukumat tomonidan “Tomorqa xizmati” MChJ va mineral o‘g‘it sotish shaxobchalarini qishloq hududlarida faoliyatini kengaytirish, suv resurslaridan foydalanishda samarali chora-tadbirlar ishlab chiqishni talab etadi.
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