Dzhankeldy Wind Power Project

Figure 6-7 Schematic Illustration of Number of Days with Atmospheric Drought in 
Uzbekistan 
Source: Third National communication of the Republic of Uzbekistan under the UN Framework 
Convention on Climate Change (2016). 
According to the Third National Communication of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2016), the 
development of ‘green industries’, the continued reduction of emissions and improved 
monitoring GHG emissions in the country have been identified as fundamental steps in building 
a more resilient population and economy to the anticipated climate change impacts. 

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6.6.3 
Climate Projections 
To understand the projections of future climate change and related impacts, global climate 
models are used. According to averaged outputs from 8 Global Climate Models with use of 
model MAGIC/SCENGEN5.3 (Climate Scenario Generator for Vulnerability and Adaptation 
Assessments), climate change scenarios for the whole of Uzbekistan and for upper watersheds 
of Syrdarya and Amudarya river basins indicate that air temperature will continue to increase 
in accordance with current trends and will increase by 1.0-1.4
C by 2030. The probability of 
heat waves in the future will increase along with retention of cold waves due to climate 
warming.
Precipitation changes are more uncertain than temperature changes. The medium-impact 
scenario indicates an increase in precipitation of about 48mm/yr in the desert and steppe 
zones, an increase of 42mm/yr in the piedmont zone, and a decrease of about 10mm/yr in 
the highlands zone. Even though the overall precipitation in Uzbekistan is generally forecasted 
to increase, the decrease in precipitation could occur in the period from June through August 
in the desert and steppe zones, when precipitation is already at its lowest level. Such an 
estimate implies that these seasonal changes are likely to have more negative impacts on a 
number of sectors (most notably on crop production) than what would national-level 
projections suggest. 
Despite an overall increase in precipitation, aridity is also expected to increase across the 
entire country, most notably in the western parts of Uzbekistan. In addition, the situation with 
water scarcity in Uzbekistan might significantly worsen due to the expected reduction of 
existing water resources (projections suggest that the water flow will potentially decrease by 
2
–5% in the Syrdarya River Basin and by 10–15% in the Amudarya River Basin by 2050). In 
addition to reduction in water resources, climate change will increase current competition 
over water resources because the demand for irrigation water will increase due to increasing 
temperatures. 
Evaluation of water use by use of WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System) model also 
show deficiency in water resources will be increased considerably as a result of climate 
change. By the 2040s even with increase in runoff of the Amudarya and Syrdarya rivers, the 
total deficiency of water for irrigation in Uzbekistan may be 8.0% with materialisation of the low 
impact scenario, 15.4% under medium impact and 33.5% under the high impact scenario 
(Third National Communication for the Republic of Uzbekistan, 2016). 
6.6.4 
Greenhouse Gases Trends by Sector
Uzbekistan accounts for approximately 0.33% of global GHG emissions but it is one of the most 
emission intensive economies in the world due to a fossil fuel intensive energy mix dominated 
by natural gas, aging energy infrastructure, elevated energy subsidies and an energy intensive 
industrial sector i.e. cement industry. Almost 40% of Uzbekistan’s available energy generation 

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capacity is past its service life leading to frequent power outages. Even if there are plans to 
diversify the energy mix, approximately 60% of the planned and under construction power 
generation projects remain in natural gas (OECD, 2019). 
According to Third National communication of the Republic of Uzbekistan under the UN 
Framework Convention on Climate Change (2016), the energy sector contributes to 82% or 
168.1Mt CO
2 
eq. while the agricultural sector contributed to 21.6 1Mt CO
2 
eq. In 2012, the GHG 
emissions from the energy sector increased by 11.2% against those in 1990 while the agricultural 
sector saw 27.1%.