Dzhankeldy Wind Power Project

6.6
Climate Affairs 
6.6.1 
Overview 
Significant amounts of scientific research have identified a link between the rising 
concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and trends in current global warming. 
A key factor in the increases of GHGs would result from the combustion of fossil fuels and the 
associated release of GHGs into the atmosphere. Potential impacts of global warming have 
been modelled by various agencies and organisations and are now well documented. Besides 
a global average rise in temperature, there is expected to be more frequent extreme weather 
events, as well as associated impacts to biodiversity, amongst many other primarily negative 
impacts. Such impacts of current climate change are starting to be realised worldwide, and 
will likely include impacts to the Uzbekistan.
According to the Asian Development Bank Guidelines for Climate Proofing Investment in the 
Energy Sector, 
power sector’s vulnerability to projected climate change includes the following: 
 
Increase in air temperature will reduce generation efficiency and output as well as 
increase custome
rs’ cooling demands, stressing the capacity of generation and 
grid networks.
 
Extreme weather event, such as stronger and/or more frequent storms, can 
reduce the input of energy (water, wind, sun, biomass), damage generation and 
grid infrastructure, reduce output, and affect security of supply.
 
Rapid changes in cloud cover or wind speed (which may occur even in the 
absence of climate change) can affect the stability of those grids with a sizable 
input of renewable energy, and longer-term changes in these precipitation 
patterns can affect the viability of a range of renewable energy systems. 
6.6.2 
National Context 
Uzbekistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change and has identified 
agriculture, economy, population health, energy, water resource management and disaster 
risk reduction as its most vulnerable sectors (WBG, 2021). Increase in average annual 
temperature with a warming rate of 0.29
C per 10 years. Analysis in the total annual 
precipitation amount averaged by various regions of Uzbekistan for the period 1950-2013 show 
very low trends towards decrease. The most significant trend in decrease in precipitation 
amount is observed in the southern plains of the Country (Bukhara province (where the 
Dzhankeldy 500MW Wind Project) and Kashkadarya province). 
Increase in the number of positive anomalies is observed by all territories of Uzbekistan and in 
all the seasons of the year. Climate observations in Uzbekistan show that the number of days 
of high air temperature (>40
C) has increased from the 19
50’s to 2000s. The number of days 
with low temperature (below either -15
C or -20C) has decreased.

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Dzhankeldy 500MW Wind Farm 
ESIA Volume 2- Main Text, Tables & Figures 
185 
According to Third National Communication of the Republic of Uzbekistan under the UN 
Framework Convention on Climate Change (2016) the different regions of Uzbekistan face 
varying vulnerability to climate change. Bukhara Province where the Dzhankeldy 500MW Wind 
Project is located is classified as medium vulnerability territory to climate change.
In addition to increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, climate change impacts 
is resulting in increase in droughts due to river runoff decrease specifically from the Amudarya 
river & Syrdarya river (WBG, 2021). Currently, the largest number of days (>40) with drought is 
the Navoi, Bukhara, Kashkadarya and Surkhandarya province (see figure below). The impacts 
of climate change are expected to result in more shortage of water and increased droughts 
in Uzbekistan as there will be decrease in river runoff and increase in water consumption in all 
sectors of the economy as well as increased population growth. This will be significant in 
regions/provinces in lower reaches of the Amudarya river basin such as Bukhara province.