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3. Methodology
The aim of the paper is to analyze, define and characterize the impact of digital technologies on the labor market and potential impacts of digital technologies on labor market in the transport industry. In order to achieve this goal, at the introduction we defined the context in which the subject was dealt with. As part of the analysis of the current state, we applied secondary research, which consisted of data collection and processing methods and their subsequent analysis and synthesis. The main sources of realized secondary research are the publications of foreign authors and research reports from the OECD and the World Economic Forum. In the research, we conducted, we examined the correlation and the trend between the selected data we obtained from the OECD (2018) statistical databases and which we also used to analyze the current state. Data of employment and unemployment are from year 2013, same as data on jobs with high risk automation which are from year 2013. Countries whose data we taken into account are: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Lithuania, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States. Second part of research is dedicated to characterizing trends that may have an impact on the labor market in the transport industry specifically in the freight transport sector. 4. Results As we can see in Figure 3, in OECD countries with high unemployment rate, the level of jobs at high risk automation increases, which can also be confirmed by the trend line with an upward tendency. Average number of jobs at high risk in selected OECD countries is at the rate 13,5 % and at this rate the average unemployment is 9,3 %. Correlation coefficient of unemployment rate and percentage of jobs at high risk of automation in selected countries is 0,5298. This means that the correlation between selected variables have moderate positive correlation. In another words unemployment rate in selected countries is correlated to the percentage of jobs at high risk of automation by 52,98 %. Countries, whose unemployment can be mostly affected by job automation are Slovakia, Greece, Spain and Slovenia and on the other hand countries who have low unemployment and also have low risk of job automation and therefore whose labor market can be less affected by job automation are Scandinavian countries such as Norway, Finland, Sweden and Korea. As we can see in Figure 4, in the selected OECD countries, the lower the employment rate is, the higher is the risk of job automation. This is also proven by the fact that the trend line has downward tendency. Average values for the OECD are 13,5 % for the risk of jobs automation at the employment rate of 65,6 %. Correlation coefficient of employment rate and percentage of jobs at high risk of automation has value of -0,5822. Coefficient value indicates that there is moderate negative correlation between examined variables. This relation can be interpreted as following: employment rate in selected countries that are members of OECD is correlated to the percentage of jobs that are at the high risk automation by -58,22 %. Countries whose employment can be mostly affected by automation are Slovakia, Slovenia, Greece and Spain. On the other hand employment of countries such as Norway, Finland, Sweden, Netherlands and USA may not be significantly affected by job automation. Roman Chinoracký et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 40 (2019) 994–1001 997 Chinoracky, Corejova / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000 3 leads to rising wages. Others workers will struggle to adapt to the new environment and will face job losses. This means that the importance of some jobs will decline and gradually such job positions will disappear and, on the contrary the importance of some jobs will increase significantly. 2.2. Digital transformation of labor market According to several authors (Brynjolfsson and McAfee 2014; Harmon and Silberman 2018, Rifkin 2014), the current technological change offers some radical new opportunities that can lead to significant transformations not only in the way of producing and doing business but also in the overall economic system. Study of World Economic Forum “Future of Jobs” (2018) points out that by the year 2022, 38 % of businesses worldwide expect to extend their workforce to new productivity-enhancing roles, and more than a quarter expect automation to lead to creation of new roles in their enterprise. Business are set to expand their use of contractors doing task-specialized work and also intend to engage workers in a more flexible manner, utilizing remote staffing beyond physical offices and decentralization of operations. In overall study points out that there will be a significant shift in the quality, location, format and permanency of new roles. Study further adds that among the range of roles that are set to experience increasing demand in the period up to 2022 are established roles such as data analysts and scientists, software and applications developers, and ecommerce and social media specialists that are significantly based on and enhanced by the use of technology (Corejova, Al Kassiri 2016). Also expected to grow are roles that leverage distinctively human skills – for example customer service workers, sales and marketing professionals, professionals in the field of training and development, organizational development specialists and innovation managers. An increased demand is expected for a variety of new specialist roles related to the new emerging technologies. Such roles are AI and machine learning specialists, big data specialists, process automation experts, information security analysts, user experience and human-machine interaction designers, robotics engineers and blockchain specialists. Across the industries surveyed in the study, jobs expected to become increasingly redundant over the 2018-2022 period are routine-based, middle-skilled white collar roles – such as data entry clerks, accounting and payroll clerk’s secretaries, auditors, bank tellers and cashiers. In overall these jobs – are more susceptible to advances in new technologies and process automation. These shifts reflect unfolding and accelerating trends that have evolved over a number of recent years (Corejova, Al Kassiri 2015). On a global scale, the issue of job automation is dealt with in the publication „Job Creation and Local Economic Development“(2018) from OECD. Most recent findings of the OECD from the year 2013 in the context of percentage of jobs at high and significant risk of automation are stated in figure 2. Figure 2. Share of jobs at risk of automation by the countries of OECD [1] By the high risk of automation we can understand the share of workers whose jobs face a risk of automation of 70 % or above. Significant risk of change reflects the share of workers whose jobs have a 50-70 % chance of being 4 Chinoracky, Corejova / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000 automated. Based upon the findings of the OECD, we can conclude that the share of jobs at high risk of automation varies strongly across countries. The percentage of jobs at high risk of automation varies from 5,7 % in Norway to 33,7 % in Slovakia. More generally, Northern Europe (Scandinavian countries and United Kingdom), North America (Canada and United States) and New Zealand face relatively low levels of risk. At the other end countries of Eastern and Southern Europe face much higher risk of automation. Publication further adds that these differences are not due to sectoral differences in the respective economies. Rather, they are due to the different organization of jobs in those countries. Jobs in Southern and Eastern Europe are more likely to have automatable aspects than jobs of the same job family in the other countries. For example, workers on an assembly line might only do a manual task that is at high risk of automation in one country. In another country, workers in the same occupation might also monitor an industrial robot and take care of quality control measures. In this case, jobs in the occupation in the second country are at much lower risk than in the first country. Download 0.67 Mb. 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