P.S. - 22 декабря 2009г., в то время когда данная презентация была на стадии подготовки, МВФ опубликовал заметку главного экономиста фонда Оливье Бланшара (см. Blanchard and Milesi-Ferretti, 2009) о макроэкономических дисбалансах и их влиянии на кризис. Статья обсуждает многие темы, затронутые в данной презентации, но, однако, предостерегает от прямых объяснений кризиса мировым дисбалансом – динамика мировой экономики со середины 1990гг. достаточно сложна, чтобы вписать ее в рамки одной теории или какой-то точки зрения (большой фискальный дефицит в США; потребительский бум в США; абнормальная склонность к сбережению в Азии и, в частности, в Китае; заниженный обменный курс юаня; т.н.система Бреттон-Вудс II, и т.д. и т.п.)....Как и статья Resende (2009), заметка Blanchard and Milesi-Ferretti (2009) убедительно указывает на основные макроэкономические механизмы, работа которых должна быть улучшена в самое ближайшее время, чтобы мировая экономика избежала долгой стагнации.
- The Weakest Link: Repercussions of the World Economic Crisis on the US Dollar
- Presentation at the European University at St.Petersburg 25 December 2009
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Abstract -
- The economic crisis ravaging the world over the last two years is still far away from its end. In the time after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers bank in September 2008 it was clear that a cause of the crisis should be sought in bad regulation of the financial sector, inadequate capitalisation requirements, as well as in the development of complex contracts-financial derivatives that got out of control. Thus, the first and foremost measures highest on the agenda of governments across the world has been rectification of the flaws in regulation, as well as expansionary measures targeted at bailing-out of the banking systems and jump-starting of the credit support for the private sector. A year down the road, the causes of the crisis, the built-up to it and its gradual development have revealed themselves in a new light, while the picture of its aftermath seems to be gloomier. More academicians and practitioners now agree on the point that the main cause of the crisis is the global disequilibrium, a horrendous imbalance in international trade. The source of this imbalance should be sought about 40 years ago, when the USA opted out of the Bretton-Woods system of monetary management. In 1971 the de facto "gold standard" existing for centuries, gave way to the USD becoming a main reserve currency in international finance. Meanwhile, the speed of technological revolution that brought about economic integration and globalisation has been too high as compared to the development of the global political and institutional framework. The crisis has bared the anachronistic character of current organisation of the world economy; it has pointed to the necessity of correction of macroeconomic imbalances. A supra-national reserve currency may now become a most important element in the quest for a more balanced world. A supra-national legal and institutional framework, harmonisation of institutions and regulations is the only way of dealing with challenges of the globalised world in the aftermath of the crisis.
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