Chapter · January 998 doi: 10. 1007/978-1-4615-6187-3 10 citations reads 2,488 author: Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects
Selection of a Deductible
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10.Retentionandcaptiveinsurance (1)
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- Loss simulation
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Selection of a Deductible A critical risk management problem facing any large corporation is selecting the optimal level of the deductible under an insurance contract. Mathematical formulas and computer simulation programs are more and more used to determine the optimal level of deductibles. Loss simulation using a Monte Carlo approach is useful to determine the total loss profile to be expected and the probability that losses will exceed the chosen deductible. 3
The worry method is suggested by Professors Williams and Heins (1989, Chap. 13). For each alternative decision the risk manager assigns a worry value to the uncertainty created under that decision. This worry value is highly subjective and mainly depends on the risk management objectives. Another suggestion to select the proper deductible is the least cost rule, which is applicable when the risk manager is able to develop reliable estimates of the annual average frequency of accidents. 4
______________________________________________________ DISCUSSION: The gross premium structure for automobile accident (property damage to the car ) proposed by the insurer is the following: $100 deductible gross premium = $780 $300 " "
= $700 $500 " "
= $650 $800 " "
= $600
The least cost rule is to select that deductible which yields the minimum value for the total expected cost (TEC):
TEC = P + f.D where P is the premium for a given level of deductible D
f is the expected number of perils (frequency) occuring in a the year. The risk manager has estimated the annual average frequency of accidents between 0.20 and 0.30. Under the least cost rule the estimates are the following: Average frequency = 0.20 Average frequency = 0.30 D = $100, TEC = 780 + 100x.2 = $800 = 780 + 100x.3 = $810 D = $300, TEC = 700 + 300x.2 = $760 = 700 + 300x.3 = $790 D = $500, TEC = 650 + 500x.2 = $750 = 650 + 500x.3 = $800 D = $800, TEC = 600 + 800x.2 = $760 = 600 + 800x.3 = $840
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The lower is the estimated annual average frequency, the larger would be the optimal deductible. In the example, the optimal deductible would be in the range {$300, $500}. However, if we assume a credibility of 100% to the experience of the company, the application of the rule results in the choice of a very large deductible or even no insurance. For BEST-RENT-A-CAR Company ( see Appendix 1, Chapter 5), a loading factor greater than 35% would result, for the average frequency of 0.40, in the choice of a $2,000 deductible: No deductible, Gross premium = $1170 $1,000 deductible, Gross premium = $ 985, TEC = $1385 $2,000 deductible, Gross premium = $ 369, TEC = $1169
As a result, the company will try to determine the maximum aggregate of retained losses and the price of "excess insurance" above the level of retention. A computer simulation of the distribution of losses would provide a more reliable information for decision making. _____________________________________________________
insurance and pricing or rate structures that fail to give a sufficient credit for the proper management of the risks, larger amounts of deductibles have been requested in the recent past. However, the decision of a firm should always be considered within the broader context of the retention capacity of the firm.
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